FUKUOKA, Japan — Global finance leaders meeting in Japan this weekend said they were increasingly worried that the trade dispute between the United States and China, which shows no signs of abating, could propel the world economy into a crisis.
日本福冈——本周末在日本举行会议的全球财政领导人表示,他们越来越担心美中之间的贸易争端,这场争端未出现任何缓和迹象,可能会将世界经济推入一场危机。
The sense of gloom at the gathering of the Group of 20 major economies came amid increasing evidence that global economic growth is slowing amid President Trump’s renewed trade war with Beijing. In a closing statement, or communiqué, officials at the G-20 warned that trade tensions have “intensified” and agreed to address the risks.
越来越多证据表明,在特朗普总统与北京重启贸易战之际,全球经济增长正在放缓,20国集团(G20)峰会上也出现了这样的悲观情绪。20国集团官员在一份闭幕声明或公报中警告说,贸易紧张局势已经“加剧”,并同意应对风险。
But the Trump administration, intent on rewriting the rules of international commerce in America’s favor, gave no sign that it was ready to back down. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continued to blame China for prolonging the fight and insisted that the trade dispute was not hurting America’s economy or hampering global growth.
但特朗普政府意图改写国际商业规则,使其有利于美国,没有任何迹象表明它准备让步。美国财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)继续指责是中国延长了这场斗争,并坚称贸易争端没有损害美国经济或阻碍全球增长。
“I don’t think in any way that the slowdowns you’re seeing in parts of the world are a result of trade tensions at the moment,” Mr. Mnuchin told reporters on the sidelines of the G-20.
“我不认为目前世界部分地区的经济放缓是贸易紧张的结果,”马努钦在20国集团会议间隙对记者说。
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Mr. Trump is expected to meet with President Xi Jinping of China in late June, a critical encounter that could determine whether the world’s two largest economies can resolve their dispute. Talks between the two countries fell apart last month, with Mr. Trump accusing China of reneging on a trade deal and China insisting that the United States was not negotiating in good faith.
特朗普预计将于6月底同中国国家主席习近平会面,这次会面至关重要,可能会决定世界上最大的两个经济体能否解决它们之间的争端。上个月,两国谈判破裂,特朗普指责中国反悔了一项贸易协议,而中国坚称美国没有谈判的诚意。
Tensions have since increased as Mr. Trump raised tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods and threatened to tax nearly all Chinese imports. Beijing has responded with higher tariffs on American goods, and in a white paper released last Sunday, Chinese officials vowed to “never give in” on issues of principle.
自那以来,特朗普提高了价值2500亿美元的中国商品的关税,并威胁要对几乎所有中国进口商品征税,紧张局势有所加剧。作为回应,中国政府提高了对美国商品的关税。在上周日发布的一份白皮书中,中国官员发誓在原则问题上“决不让步”
Mr. Trump will make a decision about the next round of tariffs after his meeting with Mr. Xi.
特朗普将在同习近平会面后对下一轮关税做出决定。
“We are not far from a real and open trade war between China and the U.S.,” Bruno Le Maire, France’s finance minister, said in an interview on the sidelines of the gathering on Sunday. “I think all the G-20 people are aware that kind of situation would lead to an economic crisis, to a lack of growth and to a slowdown everywhere in the world.”
“我们距离中美之间真正、公开的贸易战已经不远了,”法国财政部长布鲁诺·勒梅尔(Bruno Le Maire)周日在会议间隙接受采访时说。“我认为,20国集团的所有成员都意识到,这种情况将导致经济危机,导致增长乏力,导致世界各地经济放缓。”
Mr. Mnuchin met on Sunday with Yi Gang, the governor of the People’s Bank of China. It was the first face-to-face contact between officials from the two countries since the talks broke down last month. Mr. Mnuchin, in a tweet, described their discussion of trade as “candid.”
马努钦周日会见了中国人民银行行长易纲。这是自上月谈判破裂以来,两国官员首次面对面地接触。马努钦发推称他们对贸易的讨论是“坦诚的”。
But he said he had no plans to return to Beijing before Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi meet and that Chinese officials would not be traveling to Washington. The Treasury secretary, who has shuttled back and forth to China several times in the past year, said he had had no contact with Liu He, the Chinese vice premier and top trade negotiator, since early May.
但是他说,在特朗普和习近平会见之前,他不打算回到北京,中国官员也不会前往华盛顿。在过去一年多次往返中美的马努钦表示,自5月初以来,他一直没有同中国副总理、中方首席贸易谈判代表刘鹤接触。
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Policymakers from around the world voiced their concerns about Mr. Trump’s protectionist approach to Mr. Mnuchin in hopes that the former Goldman Sachs banker, who has been a more moderate voice on trade, might persuade the president to back away from tariff threats and find a way to make peace with China.
来自世界各地的政策制定者向马努钦表达了他们对特朗普保护主义路线的忧虑,希望这位在贸易方面一直较为温和的前高盛银行家有可能说服总统放弃关税威胁,找到办法同中国和平共处。
Mr. Le Maire, sipping espresso, said he made this case directly to Mr. Mnuchin and urged the Treasury secretary to consider a multilateral approach, such as working through the World Trade Organization, to confront China. He also noted that the steel and aluminum tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed on imports last year have had a ripple effect, compounding the protectionism emanating from the United States.
喝着意式咖啡的勒梅尔说他直接向马努钦提出了这个观点,并呼吁马努钦考虑采取多边途径,比如通过世界贸易组织来对抗中国。他还指出,特朗普去年对进口钢铝征收的关税产生了连锁反应,加剧了源于美国的保护主义。
This year the European Union was forced to impose quotas to slow a flood of cheap Chinese steel, which otherwise would have gone to the United States, to its shores.
今年,欧盟被迫实施配额制度,以减缓中国廉价钢材的大量涌入,这些钢材本来会是流向美国的。
In Germany, which has been bracing for Mr. Trump to make a decision about imposing tariffs on auto imports, anxiety about trade has led to a decline in business sentiment and spending.
德国一直在为特朗普对汽车进口加征关税的影响做准备,该国对贸易的担忧已导致商业信心与消费下滑。
“We all hope there will be a way out of these trade tensions,” Olaf Scholz, the German finance minister, said in an interview. “Because every one of us knows that our fundamental economic data are influenced by the insecurity of this situation.”
“我们都希望这些贸易紧张关系能找到一条出路,”德国财政部部长奥拉夫·舒尔茨(Olaf Scholz)在接受采访时说。“因为我们人人都知道,我们的基础经济数据会受这一形势不确定性的影响。”
He added, “As an indirect effect of these insecurities, companies postpone their decisions to invest.”
他接着说,“作为这些不确定性的间接影响,企业纷纷推迟了它们的投资决定。”
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Canada is also feeling pain as a result of strained relations between the United States and China. Last year, Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the Chinese tech giant Huawei, who faces extradition to the United States. Since then, China has detained two Canadians, rebuffing Canada’s calls for their release. It has also begun blocking imports of Canadian canola.
加拿大也在感受美国和中国关系紧张带来的痛苦。去年,加拿大当局逮捕了中国科技巨头华为首席财务官孟晚舟,她可能会被引渡到美国。此后,中国已逮捕两名加拿大人,并驳回了加拿大要求将他们释放的吁求。中国还已经开始阻止加拿大芥花籽的进口。
“We’re seeing actions in China to restrict the trade of canola,” said Bill Morneau, Canada’s finance minister. “We don’t see that as something related to the quality of the canola, but rather as a trade response to our legal system.”
“我们正看到中国在限制芥花籽的贸易,”加拿大财政部长比尔·莫尔诺(Bill Morneau)说。“我们认为这和芥花籽的质量无关,而是通过贸易对我们法律制度所做的回应。”
All the friction is taking a toll on many of the world’s largest economies as businesses race to reorient their supply chains and anxiously await new trade barriers. Mr. Trump has added to the uncertainty in recent weeks, threatening tariffs on allies like Mexico to solve problems, such as immigration, that have nothing to do with trade.
随着企业竞相重新调整它们的供应链,并在不安中等待新的贸易壁垒的出现,这种种摩擦在给全世界许多大公司造成损失。近几周,特朗普曾威胁要给墨西哥等盟友加征关税,以解决诸如移民这类与贸易毫不相关的问题,导致这种不确定性加剧。
This month, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund warned about the prospects of slowing economic growth, and both pointed to widening trade disputes as a culprit. The bank noted that global trade growth has slowed to its lowest level in a decade while the I.M.F. said that the tariffs that the United States and China placed on each other’s imports could reduce global gross domestic product by 0.5 percent, or $455 billion, next year.
本月,世界银行和国际货币基金组织曾就经济增长放缓的前景发出警告,它们均指出贸易争端的扩大是元凶。世界银行指出,全球贸易增长已放缓至10年来的最低水平,国际货币基金组织表示,美国和中国互相对彼此的进口商品加征关税,可能导致明年全球国内生产总值减少0.5%,相当于4550亿美元。
The Trump administration views America’s relative economic strength as a source of leverage, but there are also signs that the tariffs are taking a toll in the United States.
特朗普政府将美国的相对经济实力视为一个优势来源,但也有迹象表明,关税正在给美国造成损失。
In a survey of businesses conducted by the Federal Reserve in May, contacts across the central bank’s 12 districts mentioned tariffs 37 times, up from 19 in the April report and 18 in March.
在美联储(Federal Reserve)5月开展的一项企业调查中,该央行在12个地区的联络人提及关税37次,比4月该报告的19次和3月的18次明显增加。
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Businesses reported a range of experiences: Some said they were passing along cost increases, while others said they could not. Pecan farmers in the Dallas district were considering shifting into hemp and away from their tariff-impaired crop, while clothing stores in Richmond, Va., reported that they had stocked up on inventory to avoid import taxes and could not place new “seasonally appropriate” orders.
企业的遭遇各不相同:一些表示他们会将成本上涨转嫁出去,另一些则表示他们没法这么做。达拉斯地区的山核桃种植户在考虑改种工业大麻,放弃他们这种受关税影响的作物,而弗吉尼亚州里士满的服装店则报称,他们储备了存货以避免进口税费,因而无法下“应季的”订单。
In Fukuoka, a coastal city known as a trade gateway to the rest of Asia, finance ministers debated how to assess the effects of trade tensions on the global economy. The United States, expressing skepticism its protectionist measures are dampening growth, was an outlier. In drafting the communiqué, it resisted language that would call for trade tensions to be resolved.
在福冈,一个以通往亚洲其他地区的贸易门户著称的沿海城市,财政部长们在就如何评估贸易紧张关系对全球经济的影响进行争论。对贸易保护主义措施会抑制增长的说法存有怀疑的美国,成为其中的异类。在起草公报时,美国反对使用呼吁解决贸易紧张关系的措辞。
To the relief of many at the meeting, the Trump administration did resolve its immigration fight with Mexico and back off from a threat to impose more tariffs. Mr. Mnuchin rescheduled a Saturday morning meeting here to confer with White House officials about the decision. He said that he was pleased that the additional tariffs did not need to be imposed and that the United States could focus its attention on China.
令与会多方感到宽慰的是,特朗普政府解决了与墨西哥的移民争端,取消了加征更多关税的威胁。马努钦重新安排了周六上午在这里举行的一次会谈,就该决定与白宫官员交换意见。他表示,无需征收额外关税的情况是他乐于看到的,并且这样一来美国也可以将注意力集中在中国身上。
The Treasury secretary said he believed that the tariffs on China would encourage businesses to move manufacturing to other countries, creating new winners and losers but not dampening overall output. He acknowledged that other finance ministers expressed concern about the United States continuing on its current path.
这位财政部长称,他认为对中国加征的关税将鼓励企业把制造迁往其他国家,从而形成新的赢家和输家,但不会减少整体产出。他坦言其他财政部长对美国继续当前的道路表达了担忧。
For months, Mr. Mnuchin has been viewed as a moderate voice and optimist on Mr. Trump’s trade team, but before his meeting with Mr. Yi he struck a more strident tone, laying blame for the faltering negotiations directly on China and accusing it of backing out of commitments. Echoing Mr. Trump’s threat, he warned that if China does not return to the negotiating table then more tariffs are coming.
数月以来,马努钦一直被视为特朗普贸易团队中的温和声音和乐观派,但在与易纲会晤之前,他采取了较强硬的语气,将谈判遇阻直接归咎于中国,指责其违背承诺。在附和特朗普的威胁的同时,他警告称如果中国不回到谈判桌上,则将面临更多关税。
“It’s important to continue to communicate if they’re going to eventually get a deal,” said Clete Willems, a former top White House trade official who recently joined the firm Akin Gump. “There have been periods like this before: A few weeks ahead of last year’s G-20, expectations were exceedingly low and presidential engagement provided a jump-start for what was a period of very productive engagement.”
“如果他们最终要达成协议,那么持续进行沟通很重要,”白宫前最高贸易官员、近期加入安庆律师事务所(Akin Gump)的克里特·威廉斯(Clete Willems)说。“以前有过这样的时期:去年20国集团峰会前几周,期望值极低,总统级别的参与则使谈判快速重启,出现了一段非常富于成效的接触。”
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In an interview, Mr. Mnuchin expressed confidence that the United States could weather the trade dispute with China despite economic weakness around the world. He dismissed recent warning signs, such as weak employment and retail sales figures, as aberrations and said he saw no indication that the economy was slowing.
在接受采访时,马努钦表示虽然全球经济出现疲软,但他有信心美国能够经受住与中国的贸易争端。他认为近期就业及零售数字疲弱等警示迹象不过是反常现象,表示他认为没有迹象表明美国经济正在放缓。
“Like a lot of negotiations, sometimes you go backwards before you go forwards,” Mr. Mnuchin said. “We’re either going to have an agreement or we’re not going to have an agreement. We’re prepared for both outcomes.”
“如同很多谈判一样,有时候你会先后退再前进,”马努钦说。“我们要么将达成协议,要么达不成协议。两种结果我们都做好了准备。”