As President Trump and Kim Jong-un hold a summit meeting next week in Vietnam, they have something in common: Each apparently looks in the mirror and sees a Nobel Peace Prize winner.
特朗普总统和金正恩(Kim Jong-un)下周将在越南举行峰会,他们有一个共同点:两人照镜子的时候,显然都觉得看到了下一任诺贝尔和平奖得主。
“If not for me, we would now be at War with North Korea!” Trump tweeted last summer. He seems to see his legacy in part as the great peacemaker of the Korean Peninsula and recently boasted that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
“要不是我,我们现在就要和朝鲜开战了!”特朗普去年夏天发推说。他似乎认为自己的部分政治遗产会是伟大的朝鲜半岛和平缔造者,他最近还夸耀说,日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)已经提名他为诺贝尔和平奖得主。
“Many other people feel that way, too,” Trump told reporters, as he spoke about the “beautiful” letter that Abe had written to nominate him.
“很多人也有同感,”特朗普在对记者谈到安倍为他写的那封“美丽的”提名信时说。
Abe, apparently mortified that his effort to stroke Trump had become public, refused to confirm this. And two leading Japanese newspapers, The Asahi Shimbun and The Yomiuri Shimbun, reported that Abe’s letter was written at the White House’s request.
奉承特朗普的行为被公开,显然让安倍感到难堪,他拒绝证实此事。日本两家主要报纸《朝日新闻》(Asahi Shimbun)和《读卖新闻》(Yomiuri Shimbun)报道称,安倍的信是应白宫要求而写的。
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In surprising symmetry, North Korea is said to be abuzz with talk about the Nobel Peace Prize and the possibility that it could be awarded to Kim. The Kims are generally overachievers: Kim is said to have started driving at age 3, and his father had five holes-in-one in his first game of golf, not to mention a perfect score of 300 the first time he bowled.
据说朝鲜正在热议诺贝尔和平奖,以及将其授予金正恩的可能性,这样的相似真是让人惊讶。金氏家族常出优秀人才:据说金正恩三岁就能开车,他的父亲平生第一次打高尔夫就打出了五个一杆进洞,更不用说他第一次打保龄球就打出了满分300分。
It is, of course, delusion to think that either Trump or Kim will win the Nobel Peace Prize, and in general it’s not a good thing for leaders to go into a summit delusional. Many security officials in the United States and abroad worry that in his quest for the prize, Trump might make some rash pledge, such as to withdraw American forces from South Korea.
特朗普或金正恩赢得诺贝尔和平奖当然是痴心妄想,而且总的来说,领导人带着妄想去参加峰会不是一件好事。美国内外的许多安全官员担心,特朗普为了追求这个奖,可能会做出一些轻率的承诺,比如从韩国撤军。
But delusions can be helpful if they make each side more willing to make concessions and pursue an arduous peace process. I don’t think there is any prospect of North Korea handing over its nuclear weapons soon, but it is possible to see a diplomatic path that leaves the world safer — and there’s a fighting chance that we might achieve this.
但是,如果妄想能使双方更愿意作出让步,追求艰巨的和平进程,那么它就是有帮助的。我认为朝鲜不可能很快交出核武器,但是我们有可能看到一条让世界变得更安全的外交道路,我们有可能通过努力实现这一点。
Last year, Trump was bamboozled at his first meeting with Kim. There were minimal preparations, and Trump made major concessions such as suspending military exercises in exchange for nothing as significant.
去年,特朗普在与金正恩的首次会晤中被蒙骗了。当时的准备工作很少,特朗普做出了重大让步,比如暂停军事演习,对方却没有做出任何重大举措。
Trump compounded his diplomatic ineptitude with rhetorical grandiosity. He tweeted, “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea,” and he later asserted that Kim had sent him “beautiful letters” and “we fell in love.”
特朗普用华丽的辞藻掩盖他在外交上的无能。他发推说,“朝鲜不再有核威胁了”,他后来声称,金正恩给他写了“美丽的信”,而且“我们相爱了”。
In fact, the North Korean threat remained. Indeed, North Korea has apparently continued to produce nuclear fuel and operate its missile bases. American intelligence officials bluntly told a Senate committee this year that North Korea is unlikely to denuclearize.
事实上,朝鲜的威胁依然存在。事实上,朝鲜显然仍在继续生产核燃料,导弹基地还在运转。今年,美国情报官员直截了当地告诉参议院委员会,朝鲜不太可能实现无核化。
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Yet if Trump was hoodwinked last year, there are some more hopeful signs this time. He has appointed a well-respected special envoy, Stephen Biegun, and both Biegun and Trump have been signaling that they are now realistic about trade-offs and a timeline, with Trump saying that North Korea will denuclearize “ultimately” and that “I’m in no rush.”
然而,虽然特朗普在去年被蒙骗了,这一次出现了一些更有希望的迹象。他任命了备受尊敬的特使史蒂芬·比根(Stephen Biegun),比根和特朗普都表示,如今他们在得失权衡和达成时间表方面是现实的,特朗普表示,朝鲜“最终”将会实现无核化,而且“我不着急”。
Here’s what a plausible deal might look like.
双方有可能达成如下协议:
North Korea would promise to dismantle its Yongbyon nuclear complex and a couple of less important sites, admit international inspectors and continue its moratorium on nuclear and missile tests. In exchange, the United States would relax sanctions on inter-Korean projects involving tourism and manufacturing. The two sides could also declare that the Korean War has ended, exchange diplomatic liaison offices, ease cultural exchanges and agree on a path forward chipping away at the nuclear program.
朝鲜将承诺拆除宁边的核设施和几个不那么重要的核设施,允许国际检查人员进入,并继续暂停核试验和导弹试验。作为交换,美国将放松对朝韩之间涉及旅游和制造业的项目的制裁。双方还可以宣布朝鲜战争已经停战,互设外交联络处,放松对文化交流的限制,并就进一步削减核计划达成一致。
In some sense this is Kabuki. On my last visit to North Korea, in 2017, officials spoke of learning from Libya that if you give up your nuclear program, America may then topple your government. So I suspect Kim has zero plans to give up his nuclear weapons.
这从某种意义上就是一场歌舞伎我上一次访问朝鲜是在2017年,朝鲜官员们谈到从利比亚得来的教训:如果放弃核计划,美国就有可能推翻你的政府。所以我怀疑金正恩根本不打算放弃核武器。
But even without full denuclearization, it is progress if there is a freeze on testing, a halt to nuclear production, an easing of tensions and an agreement on future steps. When an American crossed into North Korea from China last fall, the North Koreans expelled him rather than imprisoned him as a bargaining chip. The United States has likewise eased rules on humanitarian aid to North Korea.
但是,即使没有实现全面无核化,如果能够冻结核试验、停止核生产、缓和紧张局势、并就未来的步骤达成协议,这也是一项进展。去年秋天,一名美国人从中国越境进入朝鲜,朝鲜没有监禁他,只是将他驱逐出境,以此作为讨价还价的筹码。美国也同样放松了对朝鲜人道主义援助的规定。
Trump and Kim may claim some magical breakthrough, perhaps around a declaration of the end of the Korean War. But don’t believe any magic. This is not a problem that will be solved this month or this year.At its best, this will be a slog. We should pray that U.S.-North Korea relations become boring.
特朗普和金正恩可能会宣布一些奇迹般的突破,或许是围绕着宣布朝鲜战争结束。但是不要相信任何魔法。这不是本月或今年就能解决的问题。在最理想的情况下,这也会是一项艰难的工作。我们应该祈祷美朝关系变得无聊起来。
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The greatest threat of this presidency was that Trump would stumble into a nuclear war, and in 2017 and 2018 the Pentagon was deeply concerned that this was a risk with Trump-Kim brinkmanship and Trump’s boast that his nuclear button was bigger than Kim’s.
这届总统任期内最大的威胁是特朗普可能会陷入一场核战争,2017年和2018年,五角大楼非常担心,特朗普和金正恩的边缘政策,以及特朗普吹嘘自己的核按钮比金正恩的大,会给美国带来这种风险。
If he and Kim pursue a painstaking peace process instead, in some illusory quest for a Nobel Peace Prize, we can live with that.
如果他和金正恩出于对诺贝尔和平奖的妄想追求而开始了艰苦的和平进程,我们还是可以忍受的。