WASHINGTON — The United States and China intensified their trade dispute on Monday, as Beijing said it would increase tariffs on nearly $60 billion worth of American goods and the Trump administration detailed plans to tax nearly every sneaker, computer, dress and handbag that China imports to the United States.
华盛顿——周一,北京表示将对价值近600亿美元的美国商品增加关税,特朗普政府则公布了详细的征税计划,对中国进口到美国的几乎所有运动鞋、电脑、服装和手提包征税,两国之间的贸易争端进一步加剧。
The escalation thrust the world’s two largest economies back into confrontation. While Mr. Trump said on Monday that he would meet with China’s president, Xi Jinping, next month in Japan, the stakes are only increasing as the president continues to taunt and threaten China, causing it to retaliate on American businesses.
这一升级将全球最大的两个经济体重新推入对抗局面。尽管特朗普于周一表示,他将于下个月在日本会见中国国家主席习近平,但随着总统继续奚落和威胁中国,导致中国对美国企业进行报复,风险只会越来越大。
Financial markets fell on Monday after China detailed plans to increase tariffs, with the S&P 500 index down more than 2.4 percent for the day and more than 4 percent this month. Shares of companies particularly dependent on trade with China, including Apple and Boeing, fared poorly, and yields on three-month Treasury securities exceeded those on 10-year bonds, a sign that investors may be souring on the outlook for short-term economic growth.
在中国公布提高关税的详细计划后,金融市场于周一下跌,标准普尔500指数当日下跌2.4%以上,本月跌幅超过4%。苹果(Apple)和波音(Boeing)等特别依赖对华贸易的公司股价表现不佳,美国3月期国债收益率超过了10年期国债收益率,这一迹象表明,投资者可能对短期经济增长前景感到失望。
China’s Finance Ministry announced Monday that it was raising tariffs on a wide range of American goods to 20 percent or 25 percent from 10 percent. The increase will affect the roughly $60 billion in American imports already being taxed as retaliation for Mr. Trump’s previous round of tariffs, including beer, wine, swimsuits, shirts and liquefied natural gas exported to China.
中国财政部于周一宣布将多种美国商品的关税从10%提高到20%或25%。此举将影响约600亿美元的美国进口商品,包括向中国出口的啤酒、葡萄酒、泳衣、衬衫和液化天然气。作为对特朗普上一轮关税的报复,这些商品此前已经被征税。
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The move came after Mr. Trump increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to as much as 25 percent on Friday, and threatened to move ahead with taxing the remainder of goods that the United States imports from China. The Office of the United States Trade Representative released a list on Monday of the roughly $300 billion worth of products that could face up to a 25 percent tariff and requested public comment, which will begin the formal process for enacting those duties. The list includes almost every consumer product imaginable, from coffee makers to sneakers to telescopic sights for rifles.
特朗普于上周五将价值2000亿美元的中国商品的关税提高至25%,并威胁要对美国从中国进口的其余商品征税,进而引发中国的这一举动。美国贸易代表办公室(Office of The United States Trade Representative)周一公布了一份清单,列出了可能面临25%关税的产品,价值约3000亿美元,并征求公众意见。这份清单将开启征收这些关税的正式程序,内容几乎囊括了所有能想到的消费品,从咖啡机、运动鞋到步枪用的望远瞄准具。
In remarks at the White House on Monday, Mr. Trump said he had not decided whether to proceed with those additional tariffs but gave no indication he was ready to back down from his trade fight.
特朗普周一在白宫发表讲话时表示,他还没有决定是否继续征收这些额外关税,但没有迹象表明他准备放弃贸易战。
“I love the position we’re in,” Mr. Trump said, adding that the United States was “taking in billions of dollars in tariffs.”
“我喜欢我们现在的状况,”特朗普说。他还说,美国“征收了数十亿美元的关税”。
Mr. Trump, appearing to relish the renewed trade war, suggested that his approach would ultimately drain business activity from China as companies shifted production to the United States or other nations that did not face American tariffs. He played down Beijing’s retaliation, saying the American economy was in a much stronger position than China’s and could more easily withstand a trade war, despite comments from his top economic adviser on Sunday that both sides would suffer from a trade fight.
特朗普似乎很期待新一轮贸易战,他表示,随着企业将生产转移到美国或其他不面临美国关税的国家,他的做法最终将令中国的商业活动消耗殆尽。他认为北京方面的报复行动影响没那么大,称美国经济比中国经济更强大,更容易承受贸易战,尽管他的首席经济顾问于周日表示,两国都将遭受贸易战的打击。
The president said he would take steps to blunt any pain for American farmers and provide financial support to those hurt by Beijing’s retaliation.
总统说,他将采取措施减轻美国农民的痛苦,并向那些因北京的报复而受害的人提供财政支持。
“We’re going to take the highest year, the biggest purchase that China has ever made with our farmers, which is about $15 billion, and do something reciprocal to our farmers,” the president said. “Our farmers will be very happy. Our manufacturers will be very happy and our government is very happy because we’re taking in tens of billions of dollars. I think it’s working out very well.”
“我们会选择最高的那年,中国从我们的农民这里采购最多的一年,大概是150亿美元,给我们的农民做一些对等补偿,”总统说。“我们的农民会非常高兴。我们的制造商会非常高兴,我们的政府也会非常高兴,因为我们得到了数百亿美元。我觉得效果很好。”
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Economists and industry groups were not so sanguine.
经济学家和行会则没有这么乐观。
“Americans’ entire shopping cart will get more expensive,” said Hun Quach, the vice president of international trade at the Retail Industry Leaders Association, which represents Best Buy, Walmart, Target, Dollar General and other stores.
代表百思买(Best Buy)、沃尔玛(Walmart)、塔吉特(Target)、Dollar General和其他商店的美国零售业领导协会(Retail Industry Leaders Association)负责国际贸易的副会长亨妮·科奇(Hun Quach)说,“美国人整个购物车里的东西都会涨价。”
Rick Helfenbein, the president of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, called the measure a “self-inflicted wound” that he said would be “catastrophic.” While footwear and apparel were largely spared from Mr. Trump’s first two rounds of tariffs, they are on the list of items that would be taxed if the president follows through with his threat to raise taxes on an additional $300 billion worth of goods.
美国服装与鞋类协会(American Apparel & Footwear Association)会长里克·海尔芬拜因(Rick Helfenbein)称,这项措施是“自残”,将是“灾难性的”。虽然鞋类和服装在很大程度上没有受到特朗普前两轮关税的影响,但如果总统兑现他的威胁,对价值3000亿美元的额外商品增税,这些商品就会被列入征税项目。
“By tightening the noose and pulling more consumer items into the trade war, the president has shown that he is not concerned with raising taxes on American families, or threatening millions of American jobs that are dependent on global value chains,” Mr. Helfenbein said.
“总统收紧套索,把更多消费品拉进贸易战,这表明他并不担心对美国家庭增税,也不担心威胁到依赖全球价值链的数百万美国就业岗位,”海尔芬拜因说。
Both China and the United States have left a window for negotiators to try to reach a deal before the latest round of higher tariffs goes into effect. China said it would delay the higher rates until June 1, while Mr. Trump’s new 25 percent rate affects only products sent to the United States as of May 10, leaving a two- to four-week gap from the time most goods leave China by boat to when they arrive at an American port.
中国和美国都为谈判人员留下了窗口期,以便在最新一轮更高关税生效前达成协议。中国表示将推迟加征关税至6月1日,特朗普新的25%关税只影响5月10日后送往美国的商品,从而留出了二至四周,这是大多数通过轮船离开中国的货物到达美国的时间。
But the two sides would have far to go to quickly resolve what has once again become a heated economic dispute. Progress toward a trade agreement between the United States and China nearly collapsed over the past two weeks, after American negotiators accused China of reneging on substantial portions of a potential trade agreement it had previously committed to. Significant differences remain over how tariffs should be rolled back between the countries, and whether the negotiated provisions must be enshrined in Chinese law.
但要迅速解决这一再度成为激烈经济争端的问题,双方还有很长的路要走。过去两周内,美国谈判代表指责中国反悔了一项潜在贸易协定中相当一部分曾经承诺过的内容,美中两国达成贸易协定的进程几近崩溃。在如何降低两国之间的关税,以及谈判达成的条款是否必须写入中国法律等问题上,双方仍存在重大分歧。
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Beijing’s retaliation comes as many in China feel that the United States has behaved highhandedly in threatening tariffs. While China is limited in how much it can retaliate on American goods, given that it imports far less from the United States than it sells, Beijing has other ways of retaliating.
在北京采取报复行动之际,许多中国人认为,美国威胁征收关税是一种高压手段。鉴于中国从美国进口的商品远远少于出口的商品,它对美国商品的报复力度有限,但北京有其他报复方式。
Hu Xijin, the well-connected chief editor of Global Times, a tabloid owned by the Chinese Communist Party, tweeted on Monday evening that China might halt purchases of American agricultural and energy products and Boeing aircraft, and restrict offerings of American services in China. He also cited unidentified Chinese scholars who speculated that China might sell some of its large holdings of Treasury bonds.
中共所有的小报《环球时报》的总编、在高层有一定联系的胡锡进周一晚间发推表示,中国可能会停止购买美国的农产品、能源产品和波音飞机,并限制美国在中国提供的服务。他还提到,一些未透露姓名的中国学者猜测中国可能会出售其持有的大量美国国债。
“We’re obviously very worried about how China will retaliate and whether they’ll start to target U.S. companies in China,” said Rufus Yerxa, the president of the National Foreign Trade Council, which represents major exporters. “I certainly can’t strike a note of optimism.”
“我们显然非常担心中国将会如何报复,以及他们是否会以美国在华企业为目标,”代表了主要出口商的全国对外贸易理事会会长鲁弗斯·耶克萨(Rufus Yerxa)表示。“我肯定是不太乐观。”
The question now is whether another round of tariffs cements a prolonged economic struggle between the United States and China. Since Mr. Trump was elected, the two sides have repeatedly seemed close to a deal only for it to fall apart. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross seemed to have the outlines of a deal in 2017. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin talked of a deal being at hand a year ago.
现在的问题是,新一轮关税是否会加深美中之间长期以来的经济争斗。自特朗普当选以来,双方似乎多次接近达成协议,结果却都以失败告终。2017年,商务部长威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross)似乎有了一项协议的纲要。财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)一年前曾谈到接近达成一项协议。
With talks at an impasse, economists are warning that consumers could soon start to feel the pain from Mr. Trump’s trade fight, particularly if the United States taxes all of China’s imports. While economists differ in their forecasts of how much tariffs on both sides will reduce economic growth, most agree that the cost of tariffs is passed on to businesses or consumers in the form of higher prices.
由于谈判陷入僵局,经济学家警告称,消费者可能很快就会开始感受到特朗普贸易战带来的痛苦,尤其是如果美国对所有中国进口商品征税的话。尽管经济学家对两国关税将在多大程度上降低经济增长的预测存在分歧,但多数经济学家一致认为,关税成本将以价格上涨的形式转嫁给企业或消费者。
“If there was a policy action that the administration could unilaterally engage in that would add half a point to G.D.P. growth, that would be something that people would be quite excited about,” said Michael Strain, the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “This is the opposite.”
“如果政府可以单方面采取什么政策行动,将GDP增长提高0.5个百分点,那会让人非常兴奋,”美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)经济政策研究主管迈克尔·斯特兰(Michael Strain)说,“现在是恰恰相反。”
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The president’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, acknowledged on Sunday that both the United States and China would “suffer” as a result of the tariffs. But he insisted that America would benefit in the end if the trade war forces China to give better treatment to American businesses than it had in the past.
总统的首席经济顾问拉里·库德洛(Larry Kudlow)于周日承认,美国和中国都将因关税而“受损”。但他坚称,如果贸易战迫使中国给予美国企业比过去更好的待遇,美国最终将从中受益。
Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the Fed would need to think about cutting rates if the economy were to slow in such a way that might push unemployment higher and make 2 percent inflation harder to reach. For now, the Fed is comfortable standing pat but that could change if the trade war begins to chip away at global growth.
波士顿联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)行长埃里克·罗森格伦(Eric Rosengren)表示,如果经济放缓到了可能提高失业率、使2%通胀率更难达成的地步,那么美联储就需要考虑降息。就目前而言,美联储还可以放心地按兵不动,但如果贸易战开始蚕食全球经济增长,情况可能会发生变化。
“I think monetary policy is appropriate for now,” Mr. Rosengren said in an interview. “If the global economy were to slow down because of concerns about trade, that is something that we’d have to think carefully about.”
“我认为目前的货币政策是合适的,”罗森格伦在接受采访时说。“如果全球经济因为对贸易的担忧而放缓,那我们就必须认真考虑它了。”
[How President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods will hit Americans’ shopping carts.How President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods will hit Americans’ shopping carts.]
Because China’s imports from the United States total considerably less than $200 billion, it has not had the option of matching the United States dollar for dollar on the tariff threats. Last September, China had matched Mr. Trump’s 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion a year in goods with its own tariffs of 5 to 10 percent on $60 billion a year in American goods.
由于中国从美国的进口总额远低于2000亿美元,因此它没有能力对等值的美国产品进行关税威胁。去年9月,对于特朗普每年向价值2000亿美元的中国商品征收10%关税,中国的反制措施是向每年向价值600亿美元的美国商品征收5%至10%的关税。
On Monday, China’s Finance Ministry raised those tariffs by introducing four new categories for the $60 billion in goods. The tariffs on those four categories are 25, 20, 10 and 5 percent.
周一,中国财政部提高了这些关税,为这600亿美元的商品引入了四类关税,分别为25%、20%、10%和5%。
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The Finance Ministry did not specify the dollar value of goods in each of the four categories. But the largest number of tariff codes in the $60 billion was assigned to the 25 percent category, suggesting that China was raising the tariffs on many imports to that level.
财政部没有具体说明这四类关税各自涉及多少美元的商品。但在价值600亿美元的税目商品中,列入征收25%关税的商品条目最多,这表明中国正在将许多美国进口商品的关税提高到这一水平。