HONG KONG — When President Bill Clinton deliberated whether he should loosen trade barriers against China, Wall Street helped plead Beijing’s case.
香港——当比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)总统考虑是否应该放松对中国的贸易壁垒时,华尔街曾帮北京说话。
When Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama talked tough about labeling China as a currency manipulator, Wall Street urged restraint — and both presidents backed down.
当乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)和贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)两位总统发表措辞强硬的言论,将中国列为汇率操纵国时,华尔街敦促他们保持克制——两位总统都做出了让步
Today, China is hoping that Wall Street will once again use its political heft to soothe tempers in Washington. But as President Trump ratchets up the trade war with Beijing, Wall Street’s words are falling on deaf ears.
今天,中国希望华尔街能再次利用其政治影响力来平息华盛顿的怒火。但在特朗普总统加大与北京的贸易战力度之际,华尔街的话被置若罔闻。
Senior Wall Street executives met in Beijing on Sunday with current and former Chinese officials and bankers at a hastily organized session to find ways to strengthen financial ties between the United States and China. On Monday, the group — which included executives from Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley and the Blackstone Group, the private equity firm, among others — planned to meet with Vice President Wang Qishan, the right hand man of Xi Jinping, the country’s leader.
周日,在一个仓促组织的会议上,华尔街高级管理人员在北京与现任和前任中国官员及银行家会面,设法加强美国与中国之间的金融关系。周一,这组人员——其中包括来自高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和私募股权公司——黑石集团(Blackstone Group)等公司的高管——计划与副主席王岐山见面。王是中国领导人习近平的得力助手。
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New trade talks between the two governments are tentatively scheduled between Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Liu He, a Chinese vice premier, later this month in Washington. Stephen A. Schwarzman, Blackstone’s chief, has been playing a critical role in organizing them, say people familiar with the talks, who asked for anonymity because the process is sensitive.
美国财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)与中国国务院副总理刘鹤暂定本月晚些时候在华盛顿举行两国政府之间新的贸易谈判。知情人士表示,黑石集团首席执行官苏世民(Stephen A. Schwarzman)在组织这次会谈方面扮演了关键角色,但因为该过程性质敏感,这些人士希望保持匿名。
But the Chinese have indicated that they will pull out of the talks if Mr. Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods, according to a person familiar with the matter. Mr. Trump has told advisers that he wants to move ahead with the new round of tariffs and an announcement could come as early as this week, another person familiar with the discussions said.
然而,据一位知情人士透露,中国已表示,如果特朗普兑现对另外2000亿美元中国商品征收关税的威胁,中国将退出谈判。另一位知情人士说,特朗普告诉顾问,他希望推进新一轮关税,最早可能在本周宣布。
That continues a frustrating trend for America’s financial titans: Even as they win tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks from the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress, they appear to be able to do little to stop the trade war.
对于美国的金融巨头来说,这延续了一个令人沮丧的趋势:即使从特朗普政府和共和党控制的国会手中赢得了减税和监管政策倒退,但他们似乎无力阻止贸易战。
“What’s really surprising is that the connections that used to work, the formula that used to work, just don’t work at this point,” said Marshall W. Meyer, an emeritus professor of management at the Wharton School of Business.
“真正令人惊讶的是,过去行之有效的关系、过去行之有效的公式,现在却行不通了,”沃顿商学院(Wharton School of Business)管理学荣休教授马歇尔·W·迈耶(Marshall W. Meyer)说。
Wall Street has long gambled that helping China would pay off. China has been slow to open its vast but tightly controlled financial markets, and Wall Street banks hope to get more business advising Chinese companies on acquisitions in the United States, lending money and selling financial services. Pressure from the Trump administration is now bearing fruit as China has begun to open its financial markets to foreign banks, though a worsening trade war could stymie that progress.
长期以来,华尔街一直押注:帮助中国会有回报。中国在开放其庞大但受到严格控制的金融市场方面一直步伐缓慢,而华尔街的银行希望得到更多业务——为中国企业在美国的收购提供更多咨询服务、借贷和出售金融服务等。来自特朗普政府的压力正在起效,中国已经开始向外资银行开放金融市场,然而不断加剧的贸易战可能会阻碍这一进程。
The financial sector’s arguments have often found a sympathetic ear in Washington. Over the past two decades, China has emerged as a major global economic growth driver and as an important customer for many American companies, including Apple, Qualcomm and General Motors.
在华盛顿,金融业的观点常常得到同情。过去20年,中国已成为全球经济增长的主要推动力,并成为许多美国公司的重要客户,包括苹果(Apple)、高通(Qualcomm)和通用汽车(General Motors)。
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But the Trump administration’s trade hawks have so far prevailed against Wall Street-friendly voices of trade moderation, such as Mr. Mnuchin, a onetime Goldman Sachs executive. That is partly because the trade war hasn’t shown President Trump much downside. His stance has won support from both parties. The United States economy shows few signs of trade-war damage, and markets continue to rise.
但是,特朗普政府的贸易鹰派人物目前来看战胜了对华尔街友好的贸易温和派的声音,比如曾任高盛高管的马努钦。这在一定程度上是因为贸易战还未给特朗普总统带来太多负面影响。他的立场在两党都赢得了支持。美国经济几乎没有显示出被贸易战破坏的迹象,市场继续上涨。
Even if Republicans lose Congress in November’s elections, the trade war will probably continue, said Robert B. Zoellick, a former United States trade representative. Only a slump in the markets might make him reconsider, Mr. Zoellick said.
美国前贸易代表罗伯特·B·佐利克(Robert B. Zoellick)说,即使共和党在11月的选举中输掉国会,贸易战也可能会继续下去。只有市场暴跌可能会让他重新考虑,佐利克表示。
“I don’t think that’s going to affect Trump,” Mr. Zoellick said about November’s elections. “Markets could.”
“我认为这不会影响特朗普,”佐利克在谈到11月的大选时说。“市场则有可能。”
Relations between President Trump and Wall Street are complicated. Last year’s tax bill greatly favored big financial companies, but some financial executives have clashed openly with Mr. Trump.
特朗普总统和华尔街之间的关系很复杂。去年的税收法案非常有利于大型金融公司,但一些金融高管公开与特朗普发生冲突。
JPMorgan’s chief executive, Jamie Dimon, a onetime informal adviser to Mr. Trump, said last Wednesday in a speech that “I’m smarter than he is” and that unlike Mr. Trump’s, his personal wealth “wasn’t a gift from Daddy.” Mr. Trump the next day called Mr. Dimon a “nervous mess,” and Mr. Dimon has since said he shouldn’t have made the remarks. Others, like Morgan Stanley’s chief, James Gorman, and the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd C. Blankfein, opposed Trump policies like his original travel and immigration ban.
摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)曾是特朗普的非正式顾问。上周三,他在一次演讲中说,“我比他(特朗普)聪明”,而且不同与特朗普,他的个人财富“不是老爹的馈赠”。第二天,特朗普称戴蒙“神经病”,此后戴蒙也表示自己不应该发表这些言论。其他人,比如摩根士丹利的首席执行官詹姆斯·戈尔曼(James Gorman)和高盛的首席执行官劳尔德·C·贝兰克梵(Lloyd C. Blankfein),都反对特朗普的政策,比如他最初的旅行和移民禁令。
In the past, Wall Street was an effective advocate. In the late 1990s, when China’s effort to lower trade barriers faced tough political opposition, China flew its premier, Zhu Rongji, to New York to meet directly with financial and business leaders. Senior leaders of Goldman Sachs and the American International Group, the big financial conglomerate, urged President Clinton to strike a deal. He did, and China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
过去,华尔街是一个有效的倡导者。上世纪90年代末,当中国降低贸易壁垒的努力面临严峻的政治阻力时,中国总理朱镕基飞往纽约,与金融和商界领袖进行了直接会晤。高盛和大型金融集团美国国际集团(American International Group)的高管敦促克林顿总统与中国达成协议。克林顿这样做了,中国也在2001年加入了世界贸易组织。
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Wall Street also discouraged the United States from formally accusing China of manipulating its currency. Both President Bush and President Obama vowed to get tough on China’s longstanding efforts to weaken the value of its currency to help its importers. Wall Street banks urged them to reconsider. Both ultimately backed down. (President Trump has also threatened to label China a currency manipulator, though the currency has strengthened considerably in recent years. Business leaders and some members of his administration have discouraged him from acting.)
华尔街还曾劝阻美国不要正式指责中国操纵汇率。中国长期以来压低人民币价值以帮助本国进口商,布什和奥巴马总统都曾誓言要对这样的做法采取强硬态度。华尔街银行敦促他们重新考虑。两位总统最终都做出了让步。(特朗普总统也威胁要把中国列为汇率操纵国,尽管近年来人民币大幅升值。商界领袖和一些政府成员都在劝阻他不要这样做。)
The Wall Street influence ran deep. Robert E. Rubin, a Wall Street veteran, served as Treasury secretary under President Clinton and helped forge the consensus within the Clinton administration on how to bring China into the World Trade Organization. Henry M. Paulson Jr., a former Goldman Sachs executive with a high profile in China, served as President Bush’s Treasury secretary.
华尔街的影响深远。曾在华尔街工作过的罗伯特·E·鲁宾(Robert E. Rubin)在克林顿总统手下担任财政部长。在如何将中国纳入世界贸易组织的问题上,他帮助克林顿政府内部形成了共识。前高盛高管小亨利·M·保尔森(Henry M. Paulson Jr.)曾任布什总统的财政部长,在中国颇有名气。
Wall Street figures have cultivated China connections in other ways. Mr. Schwarzman has raised more than $500 million to build a scholarship program in his name at China’s prestigious Tsinghua University. Goldman Sachs last year said it would help China’s sovereign wealth fund put $5 billion into acquiring stakes in American businesses.
华尔街人士通过其他方式与中国建立了联系。苏世民已经筹集了5亿多美元,以他的名义在中国著名的清华大学设立了一个奖学金项目。高盛去年表示,将帮助中国的主权财富基金斥资50亿美元收购美国企业的股权。
Mr. Schwarzman is working behind the scenes to get China and the United States talking again. He urged American officials to invite their Chinese counterparts to resume talks, according to the people familiar with the discussions.
苏世民正在幕后努力,让中国和美国再次对话。据知情人士透露,他敦促美国官员邀请中国对等官员恢复谈判。
Last week, Mr. Mnuchin issued an invitation, which Chinese officials publicly greeted warmly. But Larry Kudlow, President Trump’s chief economic adviser and another Wall Street veteran, suggested afterward that China had sought the invitation.
上周,马努钦发出邀请,中国官员公开表示热烈欢迎。但特朗普总统的首席经济顾问、另一位华尔街资深人士拉里·库德洛(Larry Kudlow)后来认为,是中国在谋求邀请。
“There’s some discussions and information that we’ve received that the top of the Chinese government wishes to pursue talks,” he told Fox News.
“我们收到的一些讨论和信息是,中国政府高层希望进行谈判,”他告诉福克斯新闻。
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The meeting in Beijing on Sunday — organized by Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s former central banker, and John Thornton, a former Goldman Sachs president — gave Wall Street a chance to press for more business from China. The bankers were planning to present Wall Street’s wish list for more market access, including creating a more transparent process for financial firms to get operating licenses and expanding the services that American bank branches can offer.
周日在北京举行的会议由中国前央行行长周小川和前高盛总裁约翰·桑顿(John Thornton)组织,这让华尔街有机会要求在中国获得更多业务。银行家们正计划提出华尔街的愿望清单,以获得更多的市场准入,包括为金融公司创建一个更透明的流程,以获得运营许可证,并扩大美国银行分行可以提供的服务。
Because the meeting was called on short notice, top Wall Street executives didn’t attend. Most sent a senior executive, like Franck Petitgas, head of Morgan Stanley’s international business; John Waldron, president of Goldman Sachs; and Jon Gray, the No. 2 executive at Blackstone. Officials will pass suggestions to Mr. Liu, Mr. Xi’s top economic adviser.
由于会议是在匆忙之间召开的,华尔街顶级管理人员并没有参加。大多数公司都派出了一位高级管理人员,如摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)国际业务负责人弗兰克·佩蒂加斯(Franck Petitgas);高盛总裁约翰·沃尔德伦(John Waldron);和黑石集团排位第二的执行官乔恩·格雷(Jon Gray)。官员们将向习近平的最高经济顾问刘鹤提出建议。
Prospects are good that this type of outreach will help, said Wendy Cutler, a former United States trade negotiator.
前美国贸易谈判代表温迪·卡特勒(Wendy Cutler)表示,此类接触将有助于推动良好前景。
“Traditionally there have been these back channels, and one of the reasons why Beijing has put people like Liu He in these senior positions has been because they have such good relationships with Wall Street,” said Ms. Cutler, who is vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“传统上,这些私下渠道一直存在,北京让刘鹤这样的人担任高级职位,原因之一就是他们与华尔街有着良好的关系,”卡特勒说,她目前担任亚洲社会政策研究所(Asia Society Policy Institute)副所长。
“To date, these back channels don’t seem to be working in moving this administration towards a negotiated solution.”
“到目前为止,这些私下渠道似乎并未努力将这届政府推向谈判的解决方案。”